京津城际高速铁路运营初期运量结构分析

摘要

研究目的:高速铁路运营初期运量由转移运量和诱增运量构成.本文以京津城际高速铁路为例进行分析,以便对高速铁路运营初期运量结构有初步认识和理解.研究结论:高速铁路作为一种新的运输方式投入运营,必然打破原有运输系统平衡,使高速铁路产生转移和诱增运量.随着高速铁路运营趋于成熟和时间的推移,运输系统中各种运输方式将在新的基础上建立新的平衡,高速铁路的转移和诱增运量将会逐渐消失,随之而来只有在新的系统平衡基础上与其它运输方式共存发展的趋势运量.%Research purposes: The initial volume of a high - speed railway is composed of the transfer traffic volume and the induced volume. The initial traffic volume structure of the Beijing - Tianjin intercity high - speed railway is analyzed in order to know its initial traffic volume structure.Research conclusions: As a new traffic mode, the operation of high - speed railway will certainly break the balance of the existing transportation system and produce the transfer and induced traffic volumes. With the operation of high -speed railway being mature and the time being lapsed, the various traffic modes will build a new balance and the transfer and induced traffic volumes of high - speed railway will disappear gradually, and following it, the trend traffic volume of high - speed railway along with the other transportation modes will come based on the new system balance.