能源价格变动对长江经济带宏观经济的影响——基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型分析

摘要

构建长江经济带开放静态的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,通过在标准CGE模型中加入碳排放和能源强度等式,模拟了煤炭、石油及天然气、电力等能源在价格变动情况下,对于区域宏观经济波动、产业部门能源消耗强度和碳排放水平的影响.提出将能源价格作为区域发展战略之一纳入长江经济带发展规划,改善能源结构,稳定宏观经济等建议.%An open static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is constructed.We use the standard CGE model adding carbon emission and energy intensity equation in order that we can simulate the influence of coal, petroleum, nature gas ,and electric power on regional macroeconomic fluctuation, energy consumption intensity in industrial sector and the level of carbon emission.We suggest that energy price should be regarded as one of the regional development strategies into the development planning of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The other suggestions include the improvement of energy structure and the stability of the macro economy.