人口城镇化对河北省住房消费需求的影响

摘要

The demand of housing consumption brought by the population migration has increased steadily in the process of new-type urbanization.This article takes duration data of 2002 to 2013 in Hebei Province as measurements and selects four indicators like expenditure on housing consumption of urban residents, the proportion of urban population,the average price of commercial housing and per capita GDP to meas-ure the impact of population urbanization on housing consumption demand.Using co-integration test and Granger causality test to explore the relationship among the four indicators above.The results show that there is no long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the average price of commercial housing and other indicators,the increase of per capita GDP will cause the urban residents'consumption,and the devel-opment of the population urbanization and per capita GDP keep influenced and cause-and-effect each other. Based on this,it proposed to constitute a system of public rental,low-income housing,affordable housing and commercial housing together in housing supply of Hebei Province.%新型城镇化进程中人口流动带来住房需求的不断增加，基于河北省2002年-2013年的时间序列数据，以河北省城镇居民住房消费支出、城镇人口占比、商品房平均价格、人均GDP 为指标衡量人口流动对河北省住房消费需求的影响，运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验探究人口城镇化、住房消费需求和人均 GDP 之间的关系。结果显示，商品房平均价格与其余指标之间没有长期的稳定均衡关系，人均 GDP 的增加会引起城镇居民消费支出的增加，居民消费支出的增加会带来人口城镇化的发展，人口城镇化的发展和人均 GDP 又相互影响互为因果。基于此提出河北省在新型城镇化过程中应采取以公共租赁、保障房、经济适用房和商品房为体系的住房供给政策。