以宁波市2002-2013年数据为基础，根据IPCC碳排放计算方法测算了历年宁波市各类能源的碳排放量。运用LMDI模型，分析了经济发展、能源结构和能源效率等因素对宁波市人均碳排放量的影响。结果表明，十余年来宁波市碳排放总量及人均碳排放总量都呈现出明显的上升趋势，经济发展、能源结构和能源效率等因素对宁波市人均碳排放的影响显著。据此，提出了宁波市应调整产业结构与能源结构，提高能源利用率，完善政策环境等降低碳减排压力的对策建议。%Based on the data from 2002 to 2013, the paper calculates the carbon emissions of all forms of energy in Ningbo by using the IPCC carbon emission calculation methods. Using LMDI model, the paper makes an analysis of the effects of economic development, energy mix and energy efficiency and other factors on Ningbo per capita carbon emissions. The results show that Ningbo carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions have emerged as a clear upward trend for decades. Such factors as economic development, energy mix and energy efficiency significantly affect the per capita carbon emissions of Ningbo. To reduce pressure on carbon emissions in Ningbo City, we can optimize the energy structure, adjust the industrial structure and improve energy efficiency.
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