以成都市城市化与生态环境为对象,结合成都实际情况,分别利用耦合关系模型对成都市1999-2013年城市化水平与生态环境交互耦合度进行分析,用 GM(N,1)模型分别对其综合指数进行预测.结果表明：成都市城市化与生态环境综合指数皆成上升趋势,两者的关系处于基本协调发展环境滞后的状态；通过 GM(1,1)模型预测出未来3年城市化综合指数为0.49,0.53,0.58,GM(2,1)模型预测出生态环境综合指数为：0.234,0.239,0.243.%Urbanization and ecological environment were taken as the research subj ects,in combination with the current situation of Chengdu,and by use of coupling model,analysis was made of the level of urbanization and ecological environment interaction coupling degree between 1999 and 2013 and GM (N,1)model was used to predict the composite index.The results showed that the urbanization and ecological environment comprehensive index of Chengdu undergoes a rising trend;the rela-tionship between the two is roughly in a state of basic coordinated development with the environmental development lagging a little behind.The GM (1,1)model predicts that in the future three years the urbanization comprehensive index will be 0.49,0.53, and 0.58 respectively,and that the GM (2,1)model predicts the ecological environment comprehensive index is 0.234,0.239,0.243.
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