基于仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计

摘要

Aiming at the problems of long test time, high cost and low efficiency during the accelerating life test of products with competing risks, this paper presents a method of Monte-Carlo simulation based on the optimal design of step-down-stress accelerating life test with competing risks. The Monte-Carlo was used to simulate the procedure of the test. With the asymptotic variance estimation of lOOpth percentile of the minimum lifetime distribution of the product as an objective with each test stress level and the test censoring numbers of corresponding stress as design variables, and by use of MLE theory for statistic analysis, the optimal designed model was established for simulating step-down accelerating life test with competing risks. The simulation results prove that this method is feasible and effective so that it can provide a technical support for optimal design of AT in the life prediction of electronic equipment.%针对竞争失效产品加速寿命试验存在试验时间长、费用高、效率低的问题,提出了一种基于Monte-Carlo仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计方法.采用Monte-Carlo对步降加速寿命试验进行仿真模拟,以正常使用应力下的p阶分位寿命渐进方差估计最小为目标,以各试验应力水平及对应应力下的试验截尾数作为设计变量,采用MIE理论进行统计分析,建立了基于仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计模型.最后,通过实例分析表明:该方法具有可行性、有效性.