步降加速寿命试验优化设计Monte-Carlo仿真

摘要

针对加速寿命试验存在试验时间长、费用高、效率低的问题,提出了一种基于Monte-Carlo仿真的步降加速寿命试验优化设计方法.采用Monte-Carlo对步降加速寿命试验进行仿真模拟,以正常使用应力下的p阶分位寿命渐近方差估计和各应力水平下的特征寿命之和最小为目标,以各试验应力水平及对应应力下的试验截尾数作为设计变量,采用MLE理论进行统计分析,建立了基于仿真的步降加速寿命试验优化设计模型.最后通过实例分析,表明该方法具有可行性、有效性,为电子装备寿命预测的加速试验方案优化设计提供技术支撑.%To solve the problems existed in accelerating life test as long test time, high cost and low efficiency, this paper presents a method of Monte-Carlo simulation based optimal design for Step-down-stress accelerating life test. The procedure of the test was simulated using Monte-Carlo, with the asymptotic variance estimation of lOOpth percentile of the lifetime distribution of the product at use condition and the sum of sample lifes under different stress levels is minimum as the objective. Taking each test stress level and the test censoring numbers of corresponding stress as the design variables, we made statistical analysis with MLE theory, established the optimal design model of step-down accelerated life test based on simulation. The simulation results verified the feasibility and validity of this method, which may provide a technical support for optimal design for accelerated test in life prediction of electronic equipment.