基于比例危险模型的船用柴油机视情维修决策

摘要

针对船用柴油机视情维修决策问题，采用威布尔比例危险模型描述了系统状态与故障率之间的关系，利用核主成分分析对协变量进行了去相关和约简处理，以平均费用最小为决策目标，建立了视情维修的最优维修策略模型，并根据设备当前状态信息来判断是否需要进行维修。实例分析表明：该方法有效融合了历史故障信息和运行状态信息，提高了柴油机可用度，降低了维修保障费用。%To solve the problems in the decision-making of condition-based maintenance of the marine diesel engine,Weibull proportional hazard model is used to describe the relationship between the sys-tem state and the failure rate,and the covariates′correlation is eliminated by Kernel principal compo-nent analysis.Also,the model of optimal maintenance strategy for condition-based maintenance is es-tablished with the minimum costs as the goal.Whether it needs maintenance or not is based on the current device status information.The example indicates that the method can effectively combine the historical fault information and running status information to improve the availability and reduce the maintenance costs of marine diesel engine.