资本流入、信贷波动与企业财务风险

摘要

Global capital flows can affect cash flow of firms, capital price and scale of bank loans through balance-sheets, and capital value, net asset value and credit rating of firms are influenced accordingly. Using panel data of Shang-hai and Shen Zhen mainboards and SME board companies, this paper studies the effect of three kinds of global capital inflows (FDI, portfolio investment and other investment) to corporate financial risk with the usage of fixed effect model. It reveals that FDI obviously influences financial risk of state-owned firms, portfolio investment and other investment influ-ences financial risk of non state-owned firms. At last, this paper makes specific suggestions to manage capital inflows in China.%国际资本流动通过资产负债表渠道，使企业的现金流、资产价格以及从银行获得的贷款规模发生变动，进而影响企业的资产价值、净资产状况和资信评级。研究采用2002-2013年我国沪深两市主板及中小板上市公司的面板数据，运用固定效应模型实证检验了国际资本流入的三种类型（FDI、组合投资和其他投资）对企业财务风险的影响，得出结论：FDI和其他投资的流入可改善企业财务状况，而组合投资的流入会恶化企业财务状况；FDI的流入降低了企业风险，而组合投资的净流入与其他投资的净流出增加了企业的财务风险；资本流入对于不同所有制企业财务风险的影响具有非对称性；资本流入对于稳定企业财务状况的作用在不断弱化，人民币汇率的升值导致企业的财务状况趋向于恶化。