基于灰区间真值的群体决策方法及应用

摘要

研究了灰区间偏好的群体决策问题.在专家灰区间偏好群体意见集结过程中,常规的灰区间运算会产生决策信息的失真.为了避免这一缺陷,首先引入了灰区间调节参数的概念,通过建立求解调节参数的二次规划模型,确定专家灰区间判断的真值.建立了专家客观权重求解的二次规划模型,并给出了专家客观权重的最优解.此外.从另外一个角度同时考虑调节参数与客观权重,建立求解灰区间真值与专家客观权重的群体最优决策模型.气象敏感性行业专家群体评估决策的算例表明,决策策略是有效的.%The group decision making method based on grey interval preference is investigated.When aggregating the interval preferences of group decision making,the range of interval may be gradually exaggerated with the increase of number of arithmetic computational steps.To avoid this kind of defect,we introduce the definition of adjustment parameter for grey interval.In order to determine the true value of grey interval preference,we develop a quadratic programming method to get the adjustment parameter.We establish a quadratic programming model for objective weight of decision maker,and give the optimal solution of this model.In addition,we construct an optimal model with the adjustment parameter and objective weight combined.We illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our proposed methods with numerical example for selecting industries with higher meteorological sensitivity.