空域拥挤风险管理时间决策模型与方法

摘要

针对目前日益严重的空域拥挤现象,缺乏有效的空域拥挤风险管理机制,造成拥挤难以应对等同题,建立了空域拥挤风险预测模型、空域拥挤风险解决模型和风险损失成本模型.采用风险预测模型和解决模型预测可能产生空域拥挤的时段、提出不同时段的实施流量管理策略,基于风险损失成本模型给出了不同时段调整拥挤的运行成本,通过比较运行成本和空域拥挤风险管理决策方法确定出解决空域拥挤的最佳时间点.采用实际运行数据进行验证,结果表明:所建立的空域拥挤预测模型、空域拥挤风险解决模型、风险损失成本模型和空域拥挤风险管理时间决策方法能有效地预测未来空域发生拥挤的时段,迅速找到远行成本最小的调整拥挤的时间点,为空中交通流量动态管理提供了新途径.%With more and more seriously airspace congestion, there are still no effective airspace congestion risk management mechanisms, thus causing troubled congestion. Thereby, an airspace congestion prediction model, an airspace congestion alleviation model and a risk losing cost model are established. The airspace congestion prediction model is used to forecast the time intervals in which the congestion occurred. Then, the air traffic flow management (ATFM) strategy corresponding to the different time intervals above is performed through the airspace congestion alleviation model, and the performance costs of such strategies are calculated based on the risk losing cost model. Using the time decision making methodology for air congestion risk management, the performance costs of different time intervals are compared. Consequently, the optimal operating time point of the ATFM strategy can be found. Based on the real operation data, the time decision making model and methodology for air congestion risk management can effectively predict the time of coming airspace congestion, and rapidly find the optimal timing of ATFM strategy, which provides an innovative way for dynamic ATFM.