5个全球气候模式对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟与预估

摘要

Based on the observed temperature data at 162 weather stations in the northeast China and five IPCC AR4 coupled climate models,the simulation abilities of global climatic model and multi model ensemble average for surface temperature were evaluated,and the variation of temperature in the future was projected under SRES B1,A1B and A2 three emission scenarios.The results show that the annual variation and spatial distribution of the surface temperature over the northeast China could be simulated accurately by the global climate models.However,the simulated values are systematically lower than the observed values in the study area.The simulated value in summer is 1.16℃ lower than the observed value,while it is better than that in winter.The multi-model ensemble (MME) suggests that climate over the northeast China will has a warming trend in the middle and last period of 21st century under the three emission scenarios.The increasing amplitude of temperature is larger in the last period than in the middle period,so is in winter than in other seasons.Among the three scenarios,it is the largest under SRES A2 scenario and smallest under B1 scenario,respectively.The increasing amplitude of temperature increases from south to north,and the most obvious warming area is located in Xiaoxing'anling mountain of Heilongjiang province.The mean annual surface temperature in the northeast China would increase 2.39 ℃ under SRES B1 scenario,3.62 ℃ under SRES A1B scenario and 4.43 ℃ under SRES A2 scenario in the last of 21st century,respectively.%利用5个全球气候模式和中国东北地区162个站点地面温度实测资料,评估全球气候模式和多模式集合平均对中国东北地面温度的模拟能力,并对SRES B1、A1B和A2排放情景下中国东北地区未来地面温度变化进行预估.结果表明:全球气候模式较好地再现了中国东北地面温度的年变化和空间分布特征,但存在系统性冷偏差,模式对夏季地面温度模拟偏低1.16℃,优于冬季.预估结果表明,3种排放情景下21世纪中期和末期中国东北地区地面温度均将升高,末期增幅高于中期,冬季增幅高于其他季节,SRES A2排放情景下增幅最大,B1排放情景下增幅最小；增温幅度自南至北逐渐增大,增温最显著地区位于黑龙江省小兴安岭；21世纪末期3种情景下中国东北年平均地面温度将分别升高2.39℃(SRES B1)、3.62℃(SRES A1B)和4.43℃(SRES A2).