1981—2010年锦州地区玉米生育期气象r因子变化及其与气象产量的关系

摘要

Based on daily meteorological data including temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration and maize yield in Jinzhou from 1981 to 2010,using correlation analysis,running average and Mann-Kendall test methods,the change trends of meteorological factors and their relationships with maize meteorological yield were investigated. The results show that the daily maximum and minimum temperature,the active accumulated temperature≥0℃ in-crease with a rate of 0. 359℃/10 a,0. 461℃/10 a,64. 593 (℃·d)/10 a,while daily temperature difference and sun-shine duration decrease with a rate of -0 . 102 ℃/10 a and -0 . 139 h/10 a and precipitation changes with a rate of 4. 183 mm/10 a in Jinzhou during recent thirty years,respectively. Meanwhile,there is no obvious abrupt cli-mate changes for temperature and precipitation, while the abrupt change points for sunshine duration appear in 1982,1985 and 1986. In addition,the daily maximum temperature and the active accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃increase significantly after 2000 and 2001,respectively. Inversely,all of the other factors do not show significantly abrupt climate changes. Moreover,small bell and flare opening,as well as tasseling stage,are the key periods when maize meteorological yield is susceptible. The major meteorological factors affecting maize meteorological yield are the daily maximum temperature,active accumulated temperature≥0℃ and sunshine duration and the next two are the daily minimum temperature and precipitation. The meteorological factors within a reasonable range promote the increase of the meteorological yields. On the contrary,they will be harmful to the growth and yield formation of maize when exceeding their corresponding threshold values.%基于1981—2010年锦州地区气象因子(气温、降水、日照时数)逐日观测资料和玉米产量资料,利用相关系数法、滑动平均法和突变检验法研究锦州地区玉米生育期气象因子的变化特征,并初步分析了气象因子与玉米气象产量的关系.结果表明:1981—2010年锦州地区玉米生育期日最高气温、日最低气温和≥0.00℃活动积温均呈上升的趋势,气温日较差和日照时数均呈略下降的趋势,降水量变化较小,玉米生育期日最高气温、日最低气温、≥0.00℃活动积温、气温日较差、日照时数和降水量的气候倾向率分别为0.359℃/10 a、0.461℃/10 a、64.593℃/10 a、-0.102℃/10 a、-0.139 h/10 a、4.183 mm/10 a.近30 a锦州地区玉米生育期气温和降水无明显突变点,日照时数突变年为1982年、1985年和1986年,日最低气温与≥0.00℃活动积温分别在2000年和2001年以后上升显著,其他气象因子突变趋势均不显著.1981—2010年影响锦州地区玉米气象产量的生育关键期为小喇叭口期、大喇叭口期和抽雄期;日最高气温、≥0.00℃活动积温和日照时数是影响锦州地区玉米气象产量的关键气象因子,其次为日最低气温和降水量,在气象因子适宜范围内玉米气象产量随气象因子数值的增大而增加,超过各气象因子临界值则不利于玉米的生长发育和高产.