不同物理过程组合对台风“尼格”的降水预报试验

摘要

以2011年第19号台风＂尼格＂造成的海南岛强降水为研究对象,选取WRF3.0版本中多种不同积云参数化、微物理过程,边界层和陆面过程方案等多种组合进行敏感试验,采用TS和RMS评分检验,通过分析得到结论：积云对流化参数方案的选择对于海南岛的降水模拟影响最敏感,当积云参数化方案固定时与其他各种方案组合,选取WS3,WS5,WS6微物理过程方案时,相对效果较好,陆面过程和边界层方案的选取对降水模拟效果的影响相对较小。%based on different physical processes,a heavy rainfall of Hainan Island caused by 1119 Typhoon＂nige＂is analysed,Use the test score TS and RMS,get the conclusion by analyzing the experiment：cumulus convective parameterization schemes is the most sensitive for the Precipitation simulation of Hainan Island.when cumulus convective parameterization is same,conbination with othe programs,Slect WS3,WS5,WS6 Micro-physics program,The result is relatively better.The selection of.Landsurface and boundary layer solution relatively small for the effection of Precipitation forecast.