Comparison of Arkansas Basin River Forecast Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts with Quantitative Precipitation Estimates.

摘要

Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are an important input data set for river forecast models that are currently used to produce river forecasts by the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). Improving the accuracy of river forecasts is an ongoing goal for the ABRFC. Operational experience at the ABRFC has resulted in a perception that forecasts rainfall amounts are sometimes extremely excessive, which could lead to increased error in river forecasts. The primary purpose of this study is to replace perceptions of forecast QPF bias with actual computed bias. This study compares QPF issued by the ABRFC against quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) produced by the ABRFC to determine if there is any QPF bias, both in amount and location. ABRFC QPEs are gauge-adjusted WSR-88D radar-derived precipitation estimates with human quality control that are used as 'observed' precipitation input to the river forecast model.