房价波动与宏观调控效应研究

摘要

By constructing a time series model , and the periodic analysis of the fluctuation of the house price and subdividing the macro-control policies since 1998 , we made a comparative study of the effect of the macro-con-trol policies .Study found that since 1998 , China ’ s housing prices changes and the macro-control cycle rates was 4 , and the lagged effects of the macro-control was one year , occurred one year ahead of changes in prices .Mean-while, the range of price fluctuations in recent years , compared to that between 1998-2004, was significantly re-duced , which indicated that China ’ s macro-control policies to some extent , indeed stabilized the prices , inhibited its rapid rise .%通过构建时间序列模型，对我国商品房价格波动进行周期性分析，同时细分我国自1998年以来出台的房地产宏观调控政策并划分周期，将二者对比来研究宏观调控政策的调控效应。研究发现从1998年至今，我国房价变动周期房价与宏观调控周期数均为4，且宏观调控效应滞后期为一年，提前于房价变动一年发生。同时，我国近年来房价波动范围相比于1998年至2004年间房价波动范围明显缩小，说明我国宏观调控政策在一定程度上的确起到了平稳房价、抑制其飞速上涨势头的作用。