铁路地面信号设备时间同步系统可靠性分析

摘要

为了量化铁路地面信号设备时间同步系统安全风险并识别薄弱环节,采用专家判断和模糊集理论相结合的方法量化基本事件的条件概率,将系统故障树模型映射为贝叶斯网络,以此构建铁路地面信号设备时间同步系统可靠性模型,对系统进行可靠性评估.通过计算系统故障条件下单元的失效率,识别系统的薄弱环节.诊断推理分析表明,光纤及通信前置服务器是引起铁路地面信号设备时间同步系统失效的关键事件,因此,加强对其维护可有效降低事故的发生概率.%In order to quantify the safety risk of time synchronization system of railway ground signal equipment,the expert estimation method,combined with fuzzy sets theory,is adopted to assess the happening probability of the base events.Further,FTA model of time synchronization system of railway ground signal equipment is mapped into the Bayesian Network.The reliability modeling of time synchronization system of railway ground signal equipment is established by using Beyesian network.The weakness of the system can be identified by calculating the unit unavailability under the condition of the system fault.Bayesian diagnostic inference shows that the optical fiber and communication pre server are more important than others.It is effective to reduce the failure rate of the system by strengthening the maintenance check of these equipments.