基于灰色系统GM(1,1)的淮安市房价预测模型

摘要

This paper analyzes the commercial housing sales data in Haian Statistical Yearbook,2008~2014.The average price of commercial housing is gained by using the total sales areas and sales.Based on the average price, a price prediction model of real estate in Haian via the system of GM(1,1) is established.In order to improve the accuracy of the model, the second order weakling factor is introduced to preprocess the raw data.By using the preprocessed data, the paper gets a price prediction model with higher accuracy.further more, this paper forecasts the average price in the next five years by using the model.%以淮安市统计局发布的2008~2014年统计年鉴中有关商品房的销售数据为分析对象,利用销售总面积和销售总额折算成商品房的平均价格,建立了基于灰色系统GM(1,1)的淮安市房价预测模型.为了提高模型精度,引入二阶弱化因子,对原始数据进行预处理.利用预处理后的数据建立了精度更为理想的预测模型.利用模型预测了随后5年的平均房价.