基于 VAR模型的制造业与物流业联动发展———以广东省为例

摘要

制造业与物流业具有较高的产业关联度，两者联动发展对于促进经济发展方式转变、推动国民经济平稳较快发展具有重要意义。对1993-2010年的数据进行 VAR模型和协整检验得出，广东省制造业和物流业的发展存在单向协整关系，即前者有效促进了后者的发展，但后者对前者的拉动作用未能很好体现。应从优化区域布局促进现代物流业快速发展，搭建信息交流平台和制定财税优惠政策，促进两者联动发展。%　　Thereisahighdegreeofindustriallinkagebetweenmanufacturingindustryandlogisticsindustry, andthejointdevelopmentbetweenthemissignificanttopromotethetransformationofeconomicgrowthmode, andstableandrapiddevelopmentofnationaleconomyaswell.BasedonVARmodelandcointegrationtestof 1993-2010datainGuangdongProvince,itisconcludedthatthereexistsunidirectionalcointegrationrelationship betweenthedevelopmentofmanufacturingindustryandlogisticsindustry,namely,theformereffectively promotesthelatter,whilethelatterdoesnothavethepullingeffectontheformer.Topromotetherapid developmentofmodernlogisticsindustryneedssettling.Toencouragejointdevelopmentbetweenlogistics industryandmanufacturingindustry,itisnecessarytooptimizearealayout,tosetuptheinformationexchange platformandtomakepreferentialpolicyontax.