基于ARMA组合模型的我国人口增长预测分析

摘要

It is well known that China has a very large population.Both the size and the structure of population hinder sustainable development of society,economics,resources and environment.This paper studies the trend of population growth and volatility since new China and analyzes the effect of family planning policy based on the dummy variable.The result shows that this policy reduces the speed of population growth and controls the population situation.Then we overcome the autocorrelation through combined model.What＇s more,this model helps us forecast the population 5 years later.The results show that the population in China will break through 1.4 billion and in 2015 the population may be 1.4268 billion.%众所周知,我国是人口大国,人口数量问题和人口结构问题严重阻碍了我国社会、经济、资源、环境等方面的可持续发展。在新中国成立以来人口增长趋势以及两次人口波动情况后,从虚拟变量的角度,考察了计划生育政策的实行对我国人口的影响,结果表明计划生育政策大大减缓了我国的人口增长速度,对控制人口形势发挥了显著作用。在此基础上,运用组合模型,一方面克服了自相关性,更重要的是,利用组合模型在预测方面的优势,对未来五年我国人口进行预测,结果表明,在2014年,我国人口将突破14亿,2015年,我国人口总量将达到14.2684亿。