Predictive Analytics on CSI 300 Index Based on ARIMA and RBF-ANN Combined Model

摘要

The time series of share prices is a highly noised, non-stationary chaotic system which possesses both linear and non-linear characteristics. The alternative of either linear or non-linear prediction models is of its inherent limitation. The paper establishes an ARIMA and RBF-ANN combined model and makes a short-term prediction on the time series of CSI 300 index by choosing various typical input variables. Results show that the combined model with multiple input indicators, compared with single ARIMA model, single RBF-ANN model, or models with single input variable, is of higher precision.