基于模糊综合评判的地方财政风险测算--黑龙江省样板数据的分析

摘要

Economic development and fiscal revenue and expenditure arrangement differ around , differentiation of fiscal risks exists for Chinese local government.Through selecting dynamic and static financial risk index , using multi-level fuzzy evaluation model and combing with analytic hierar-chy process ( AHP) to construct the local finance risk measure model, to measure the level of financial risks of local government to ensure fiscal sus-tainability of local government has an important significance .By carrying on the empirical analysis of financial sample data of Heilongjiang province , the province's annual fiscal risk degree and the main cause of its dangerous fiscal situation are concluded.The empirical results is in line with the provincial financial realities,so as to verify the application value and reference significance of the financial risk measure model.%由于各地经济发展、财政收支安排的不同，我国地方政府存在差异化的财政风险。通过选取动态、静态的财政风险指标，利用多层次模糊评判法，并结合层次分析法构建地方财政风险测度模型，研究测算地方政府财政风险程度，对保证地方政府财政的可持续性具有重要意义。通过对黑龙江省财政样板数据的实证分析，得出该省年度财政风险程度和主要的风险成因，该实证结果与黑龙江省财政的现实情况基本相符，从而验证了财政风险测度模型的应用价值和借鉴意义。