基于比例风险模型的装备状态维修决策方法

摘要

利用多维状态特征参数对装备故障风险的强相关关系，采用威布尔比例风险模型建立了状态维修决策模型。针对典型比例风险建模过程中参数估计方面存在的缺点，采用基于遗传算法的参数估计方法，提高了建模精度。针对检测间隔期决策，提出通过确定状态劣化阈值，在状态劣化阶段实施动态检测的检测策略，建立了区间型检测间隔期优化方法；针对维修行为决策，将失效风险阈值与状态检测间隔期阈值相结合维修行为的综合决策，提高了决策的稳定性。以某发动机为例对状态维修决策方法的有效性进行了验证。%According to the fact that the reliability of equipment is heavily related to complica-ted condition parameters,Weibull proportional hazard model was taken to construct the relia-bility model.In order to promote the modeling precision of the model,the genetic algorithm was utilized to estimate parameters in the model.According to the decision-making method of inspection interval,a deteriorating threshold was set to trigger dynamic condition inspection, and a flexible interval type of optimization method for inspection was illustrated.Aimed at the maintenance action determination,hazard threshold and inspection interval threshold were combined to perform comprehensive maintenance action decision-making so as to enhance stability of decision-making method.A case study of certain type of engine was put forward to verify the feasibility and reasonability of the model.