基于出租车GPS数据的贵阳市交通状态空间自相关分析

摘要

城市交通状态具有时空性,自身又具有空间自相关特征.分析城市交通状态空间自相关特性,对交通管制、居民出行行为以及城市道路基础设施建设具有重要意义.基于贵阳市中心城区出租车GPS空间数据库,划分交通小区并计算各交通小区平均行程速度和空间自相关Moran’sⅠ指数,对贵阳市中心城区交通状态的空间自相关性和演化特征进行分析.结果表明:1)全局时空Moran'sⅠ指数形成良好的空间相关性,存在一定的空间聚集性,且随时间的推移空间自相关性呈波动式变化,工作日与休息日分时段时空Moran'sⅠ指数变化态势明显,交通状态表现为时空集聚性强;2)局部时空Moran'sⅠ指数高高聚集与低低聚集模式在空间上维持良好的稳定机制,高高聚集呈现城市外围区域指向性特征,低低聚集呈现城市核心区指向性特征;3)工作日与休息日早晚高峰时段各种类型区分布格局保持高度共轭协同,仅有小部分区域出现异质情况;4)时空Moran'sⅠ指数时空聚集区域在空间上表现出由弱聚集向强聚集,再向弱聚集状态转变.在高峰时段表现为强聚集趋势,在非高峰时段聚集程度较弱.%Urban traffic state has space-time characteristics,and it has spatial autocorrelation characteristics.The analysis of the spatial autocorrelation characteristics to urban traffic state is of great significance to traffic control,resident travel behavior and urban road infrastructure construction.Based on GPS spatial database of taxi in Guiyang city,the average travel speed of each traffic zone and spatial autocorrelation Moran s Ⅰ index is calculated with the division of the traffic zones and the correlations and evolution characteristics of Guiyang city traffic state space are analyzed.The results show that:1)The global space-time Moran's Ⅰ index has good spatial correlation,there is a certain spatial clustering and the fluctuant changes of the spatial autocorrelation with time for the global space-time Moran's Ⅰ index,the changes of the spatial and temporal Moran's Ⅰ index are obvious during the period of working day and rest day,and the traffic status shows strong spatial and temporal clustering;2) Moran's Ⅰ index of local space-time high aggregation and low accumulation mode maintain the stability of good mechanism in space,the high accumulation mode shows the characteristics of directivity on the periphery area and the low accumulation mode shows the characteristics of directivity on the core area;3) In the morning and evening peak hours,the distribution patterns of all types of areas maintain high conjugated coordination,and only a small part of the areas appears heterogeneous;4)The spatial and temporal aggregation regions of space-time Moran's Ⅰ index change from weak aggregation to strong aggregation,and to weak aggregation.This shows a strong aggregation trend in the peak period,and the aggregation degrees become weak in the non-peak period.