基于故障树模型的城市雾霾风险分析

摘要

针对城市雾霾成因的复杂性以及预测其发生概率和规律缺乏精确值的现状，提出基于故障树模型的城市雾霾风险分析评估方法。通过对城市雾霾成因资料搜集与分析，建立以“城市雾霾”为顶事件的故障树。在对故障树进行定性分析基础上，得到引发城市雾霾风险发生的12个最小割集，确定了城市雾霾风险分析的主要模式。采用模糊综合评判分析方法对故障树进行定量分析，评估基本事件权重和顶事件发生概率，以更有效防治和应对雾霾天气，降低城市雾霾带来的风险危害性。%This paper focuses on the complicated causes of urban pollution haze,and the inexact predicted value of the accident probability and its corresponding rules.We propose the fault tree analysis with the top-event of the urban fog-haze risk assessment methodology.Through the information gathering and analysis of pollution haze in urban areas,we propose the fault tree analysis with the top-event of the urban fog-haze risk assessment meth-odology.In the qualitative analysis of fault tree,we obtain 1 2 minimum cut sets,and finally determine the main risk model of urban fog-haze.The proposed method with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for fault tree quantita-tive analysis was introduced in this paper.This method is focused on the evaluation of the basic event weight and the probability of the top events,which is more effective for preventing the fog-haze weather,and greatly re-duces the risk of perniciousness caused by urban fog-haze.