我国经济结构支持系统的SD模型及系统仿真

摘要

The study, based on the input-output theory, sets up SD model for China's economic structure, which includes industrial structure, GDP structure, investment Capital structure, consumption structure, in-come distribution and so on. This model reflects the role played by and the relationship between the sub-structures in the economic system. It is thus expected to provide a theoretical basis for the economic struc-ture adjustment and policy-making. According to the results of model simulation, although the increasing consumption ratio in GDP (total investment contraction) affects the short-term economic growth, it will not influence the long-term growth; increasing the ratio of remuneration in primary distribution plays a decisive part in promoting consumption and boosting short-term economy.%　　基于投入产出理论，构建了我国经济结构支持系统的SD模型，将产业结构、国内生产总值结构、投资结构、消费结构、收入分配结构等主要经济结构纳入模型之中，反映了各结构在经济系统中扮演的主要角色和相互影响关系，能够为经济结构调整、经济发展方式转变等政策的制定提供理论支持。根据模型仿真结果，提高消费占国内生产总值的比例（投资总量紧缩）虽然会影响短期内的经济增长，但不会影响我国长期的经济增长趋势；提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比例，对消费水平提升和短期内的经济增长具有很强的促进作用。