灰色系统残差预测模型软件的研制与应用

摘要

基于灰色系统GM(1,1)残差模型编制了GMRCFS预测软件,并对隔河岩大坝1998-06-10-11-28日5个GPS监测点的形变进行了预测.结果表明,GM(1,1)残差模型具有较高的预测精度,合理选取预测步长可达到大坝形变预测的要求.%A forecasting software titled GMRCFS has been developed based on the GM (1,1) residual error model of grey system,and deformation of Geheyan dam has been predicted by five GPS monitoring sites on June 10 to November 28 in 1998.The results show that the GM(1,1) residual error model has high accuracy,it could satisfy the demand of dam deformation forecasting if a step size is chozen reasonably.