通过构建资本项目管制下的中国开放经济模型，本文主要研究影响人民币升值、经常账户失衡，以及二者动态变动的经济因素。基于SVAR模型的实证研究发现：1992～2008年间的中国技术进步推动了人民币升值、增加了经常账户盈余，并且决定人民币汇率的长期均衡水平；正向需求冲击则在当期内导致经常账户赤字，长期内增加经常账户盈余；人民币汇率和经常账户之间不存在负向因果关系，二者的动态变动主要取决于外生冲击的类型。中国开放经济模型较好的解释了上述现象，货币政策冲击是影响经常账户的主要需求冲击。重要的是，由于技术进步决定一国汇率的长期均衡水平，因此人民币升值与否的关键在于中国的相对技术进步。如果国内技术进步更快，则人民币升值的压力加大、经常账户盈余加剧，此时要实现经常账户平衡，适合采用扩张性货币政策。%Setting up China＇s open economy model with capital account regulation, we explore what economic factors affecting RMB app.reciation and current account imbalance, as well as the dynamic relationships between them. Adopting the SVAR method to conduct empirical analysis, we find that during the period of 1992-2008, China＇s technology progress achieves RMB appreciation, and realizes current account surplus, and determines the long-run equilibrium RMB exchange rate; positive demand shocks cause current account deficit in shortterm, but increase current account surplus in long-run; the relationship between RMB exchange rate and current account is not negative causality, but it is up to the type of exogenous shocks. Our China＇s open economy model matches the facts well, and reveals that monetary policy shock is the main demand shock affecting current account. Most important, now that domestic technology level determines the long-run equilibrium level of exchange rate, RMB appreciation mainly depends on China＇s relative technology progress, which implies that relative faster technology progress in China will exert pressures on RMB appreciation, and improve the current account. Aiming at realizing trade balances, expansionary monetary policy is more desirable.
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