昆虫杆状病毒流行病模拟模型及Java模拟软件

摘要

Abstract:A generalized model for the epidemiology of baculoviruses in an insect population was implemented in the multi - platform computer language Java.The model consists of a basic insect life table model,supplemented with all relevant infection pathways for the baculovirus and a simple crop growth and damage model.The simulation model is developed to provide a research tool and a teaching model for the epidemiology of pest insect diseases.The model simulates insect population dynamics,active baculovirus dynamics as well as crop injury.The model can be parameterized for various crops,pest insects,and accommodates variable temperatures.It can be used to study the likely behavior of genetically modified baculovirus in agru- ecosystems.%研究昆虫杆状病毒流行病模拟模型,对确定基因工程改造杆状病毒的主攻方向,明确病毒病田间流行的机制与关键因素,以及制定生物防治策略,均具有重要的理论与实践意义.本研究研制了用于昆虫杆状病毒流行病模拟的数学模型和Java模拟软件,该模型包括描述种群动态的一个微分方程组,描述气温变化、作物生长及病毒动态的若干模型等.模拟软件用工具包JDK和JavaScript开发,由主计算类、图形类、结果显示类、参数输入界面类、警告信息类、主页、用户指南页、版权页、计数页等组成.在参数文件中编人有关作物、病毒、害虫等方面的参数,输入初始的各龄健康、染病虫量、叶面积、病毒密度等,运行后可输出各龄健康、染病及病死的虫量,作物损失,病毒积累等动态,以及图形等等.该模型适用于各种杆状病毒,各种有叶作物,各种食叶性的全变态昆虫.应用该模拟模型,对温度、病毒施用虫龄、病毒施用时间、病毒施用剂量等进行了灵敏度分析,得到了一些重要结论.