采用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的碳排放测算方法,计算了除香港、澳门、台湾和西藏外中国30个省(市、自治区)1995-2010年的碳排放量,并选取碳排放总量、碳排放强度和人均碳排放量3个指标,运用多指标面板数据聚类法,将各省份划分为高、中和低碳排放区域:高碳排放区域包括河北、山西、内蒙古、辽宁、山东和宁夏,低碳排放区域包括北京、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、海南、重庆、四川、云南、陕西和青海,中碳排放区域包括天津、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、河南、贵州、甘肃和新疆.分别对3类地区的人均碳排放量和人均GDP进行协整检验和回归分析,结果显示人均碳排放量和人均GDP存在长期协整关系且符合环境库兹涅茨曲线,高、中和低碳排放区域的理论曲线拐点分别为人均GDP 41 046、50 219和47 049元.今后一段时期内我国碳排放总量还将继续增长,但GDP的增长速度大于碳排放量的增长速度,碳排放强度会继续下降.%Carbon emissions of 30 provinces,metropolis or autonomous regions (except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet) of China from 1995 to 2010 were calculated using the IPCC method.Based on total carbon emission,carbon emission intensity and carbon emission per capita,the three indices,the 30 provinces,metropolis and autonomous regions were sorted into 3 categories or grades,i.e.high,moderate and low in carbon emission,through cluster analysis of multivariable panel data.In Grade High,there were Hebei,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Shandong,Ningxia,in Grade Low,Beijing,Zhejiang,Anhui,Fujian,Jiangxi,Hubei,Hunan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Hainan,Chongqing,Sichuan,Yunnan,Shaanxi,Qinghai,and in Grade Moderate,Tianjin,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Henan,Guizhou,Gansu,Xinjiang.Besides,cointegration test and regression analysis was performed of carbon emissions and GDP per capita of the three groups.Results show that a co-integration relationship had long been existing between carbon emissions per capita and GDP per capita and fit the environmental Kuznets inverse U curve,and the knee of the theoretical curve of the three groups,high,moderate and low was 41 046,50 219 and 47 049 yuan (RMB) in GDP per capita,respectively.It is predicted that the total carbon emission of the country will keep on increasing for a long time,however,with a growth rate of carbon emission lower than that of the GDP,which means the carbon emission intensity will keep on declining.
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