基于灰色Verhulst模型的民航远期货运量预测研究

摘要

After analyzing the difficulty of civil aviation’s long-term freight volume prediction,this paper intro-duces the grey Verhulst theory and explores the feasibility of the theory being applied to long-term freight volume prediction of civil aviation. Then,based on the relevant theory the grey Verhulst model of freight volume predic-tion is built. Finally the paper illustrates the proposed model’s effect on long-term freight volume prediction. The study indicates that the grey Verhulst model is effective in civil aviation freight volume prediction.%　　从分析民航远期货运量预测的难点入手，引入灰色Verhulst模型，并分析了此理论应用于中国民航长期货运量预测的可行性及方法，在此基础上建立了民航货运量的Verhulst预测模型，结合中国民航货运量的历史数据进行了研究和分析。研究表明，灰色Verhulst模型在民航长期货运量预测方面具有较好的应用效果。