基于种群动态膜系统的大熊猫种群模型

摘要

大熊猫谱系数据是研究大熊猫种群动态性的重要数据基础,因此从保护大熊猫的角度考虑,大熊猫生态系统的数据建模具有重要意义.针对该问题提出了一种使用种群动态膜系统对大熊猫生态系统进行数据建模的方法.基于中国动物园协会已发布的大熊猫谱系数据从大熊猫个体行为上来模拟研究中国大熊猫保护研究中心圈养大熊猫种群特征,详细分析繁殖参数的变化规律并加入野放模块,设计了一个符合其特点的具有两层嵌套膜结构、对象集合和一系列进化规则的种群动态膜系统.在该膜系统的仿真实验中得到的全体大熊猫仿真结果与实际数据的相对误差最大不超过土4.13％,基本控制在±2.7％以内.实验结果验证了该计算模型的有效性和正确性,能够模拟预测大熊猫种群的变化趋势,给管理者的决策提供依据.%Giant panda pedigree data is an important data base for studying the population dynamics of giant pandas.Therefore,it is of great significance for data modeling of giant panda ecosystems from the perspective of panda conservation.Focused on this issue,a data modeling method of giant panda ecosystem based on population dynamics P system was proposed.Based on the giant panda pedigree data released by Chinese Association of Zoological Gardens,the population characteristics of captive pandas were simulated and researched in China Giant Panda Conservation Research Center from individual behavior.The change rules of reproductive parameters were analyzed in detail,and added to the field released module.Eventually,a population dynamic P system for giant panda was designed releasing-to-the-wild with a two-layer nested membrane structure,a collection of objects and a series of evolution rules which is inline with the characteristics of giant panda.For all giant panda,the maximum relative error between the simulation results and the actual data was within ±4.13％ and basically controlled within ±2.7％ of P system.The experimental results verify the effectiveness and soundness of the proposed model.It can simulate the population dynamic change trend of giant panda and provide the basis for management decision-making.