基于自适应控制的石油产量预测方法与模型研究

摘要

The difference between the temperature-control model and the oil system adaptive model was researched and put forward.A production forecast model of oil system based on adaptive mecha-nism was built.Automatic control theory emphasizes on control mechanism in the inner system,while automatic control in oil system is more complicated.A new method which considered the complex feedback between energy system and its environment was applied to forecast oil production.%通过对比温控系统与石油系统控制原理，分析自动控制理论与石油系统控制理论存在的差异，建立能够刻画石油系统自适应机理的产量预测模型。自动控制原理侧重研究系统内部的控制机理，而石油系统中的控制机理更加复杂化。根据石油系统自控原理的特殊性，分析石油系统下各种环境的反馈关系，构建一种石油产量预测新思路。