高速铁路与航空中长途竞争的博弈分析

摘要

高速铁路运营不能完全做到市场化,需要兼顾公共服务职能,并且面临航空运输的激烈竞争.本文研究高速铁路与航空运输在中长途客运中的竞争问题,分析出行者选择出行方式时的影响因素,根据旅客时间价值不同细分旅客,构建出行者的广义出行成本.基于广义出行成本的出行者随机效用,建立交通方式分担率模型,同时引入消费者剩余计算模型来衡量旅客满意度.通过分析交通运营商的成本和收益,构建高速铁路和航空运输的纳什博弈模型.以北京到上海高速铁路和航空运输的竞争作为算例,分析消费者满意度、出行者细分与均衡运营定价策略以及交通方式开行频率的关系,为高速铁路与航空运输不同情况竞争下的最优策略制定提供了理论基础.%This paper developed a game-theoretical model to analyze the competition between high-speed railway and air transport in the medium and long distance passenger transport.Because of deregulation process in airline industry,airlines are assumed to maximize profit.However,high-speed railway owned by China Railway Cor-poration,attaches great importance to social welfare apart from its profit.Based on the analysis of factors that affect people's decision on traveling,a generalized travel cost for travelers was constructed in this paper.Mean-while,the travelers in the market were subdivided into different segments according to their value of time.U-sing generalized travel cost as the basis for random utility of each segment of travelers,the market shares of high-speed railway and air transport were developed.Besides,the consumer surplus calculation model for the travelers taking high-speed railway or air transport was introduced to measure the passenger satisfaction.With the analysis of the cost and benefit of traffic operators,a two-person Nash game model of high-speed railway and air transportation was built.Finally,a numerical study was implemented to evaluate the competition be-tween Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and air transport,to analyze the relationship between consumer sat-isfaction,traveler segmentation,equilibrium operation pricing strategy and traffic mode operation frequency, which provides a theoretical basis for the optimal strategy development under different competition situations between high-speed railway and air transportation.