Taking the death rates from 1990 to 2006 in Chinese accidents as basic datum, a variable parameter value rolling grey forecasting model (VRGM) is proposed based on the fixed parameter value rolling grey forecasting model (FRGM), which has a constant parameter and equals 0.5.It is apparent that if the parameter value is decided in consideration of the factors, such as the number of population, the number of vehicles and the length of highway, which influence the forecasting objective, better result will be achieved. According to death rates per 10 thousand vehicles in China, a VRGM (1,1) model is constructed. The average residual error of FRGM (1,1) model, VRGM (1,1) model and VRGM (1,1) model plus 3-points average are 6.97%,5.67% and 4.61% respectively. The research suggests that VRGM (1,1) model is better than FRGM (1,1) model, and VRGM (1,1) model plus 3-points average can further smooth the prediction results and increase the reliability. 3 tabs, 15 refs.%以中国1990~2006年万车死亡率为研究对象,在固定参数动态灰色预测模型基础上,根据人口数量、机动车数量和公路里程优化参数P值,建立了可变参数动态灰色预测模型;分别运用固定参数动态灰色预测模型、可变参数动态灰色预测模型和基于三点平均技术的可变参数动态灰色预测模型进行预测,得到的平均相对误差分别为6.97%、5.67%和4.61%.研究结果表明:可变参数动态灰色预测模型优于固定参数动态灰色预测模型;基于三点平均技术的可变参数动态灰色预测模型可以进一步平滑预测结果,增加预测结果的可靠性.
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