农业气象灾害是指大气变化产生的不利气象条件对农业生产和农作物等造成的直接和间接损失.由于中国北方地区农业本身的脆弱性,近年来随着气候变化的日趋明显,农业气象灾害的频率增加,强度增强,对粮食安全的威胁也日趋严重.针对北方地区的三种主要农作物小麦、玉米和马铃薯所遭受的三种主要灾害旱灾、低温冷害及霜冻风险评估方法的优缺点以及适用范围进行了归纳总结,并对目前三种灾害风险评估研究存在的问题和未来的研究方向进行了初步探讨,以期为北方地区农业风险评估研究提供参考,为农业生产提供有力的理论依据.%Agro-meteorological disasters are the direct and indirect losses of agricultural production and crops caused by adverse weather conditions produced by atmospheric changes. Due to the inferiority of the agriculture of the North China, and as the climate change become more evident in recent years, the frequency and the intensity of the agro-meteorological disasters increased obviously in the North China, and that became increasingly serious threat to food security. According to three major disasters of drought, chilling damage and frost injury, which suffered by three major crops of wheat, corn and potatoes in North China, advantages and disadvantages as well as the application scope of the risk assessment methods of are summarized, and the problems and research directions of the disaster risk assessment study were discussed, in order to provide reference for the agriculture risk assessment studies and potent theoretical basis for agricultural production in the North China.
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