基于GIS的陕西省洪涝灾害风险评估及区划

摘要

基于陕西省洪涝灾害多发的实情,为了解其洪涝灾害风险性高低程度,收集整理陕西省84个气象站点降水资料和1950-2000年洪涝灾害历史记录数据以及陕西省2015年社会经济数据,采用层次分析法确定各因子的权重,利用加权综合评价法计算综合风险指数,并结合GIS的空间分析功能,对陕西省洪涝灾害风险进行区划.结果表明:陕西省洪涝灾害风险由南向北有递减的趋势,高危险区主要分布在安康市;高暴露区主要分布在西安市、咸阳市;高脆弱区主要分布在榆林市、西安市;强防灾减灾能力区域主要分布在西安市;综合风险高的区域分布在安康市、渭南市、咸阳市.陕西省洪涝灾害风险大小与其气候、地形、社会经济因素密切相关,经验证风险区划结果和近几十年的洪涝灾害实情基本吻合,具有一定的参考价值.%Based on the fact that flooding is frequent in Shaanxi Province, we can recognize that disaster risk assessment is helpful in reducing casualties and financial loss, which include rainfall record in 84 Forain Smart Stations in Shaanxi Province, the historical flooding trace from 1950 to 2000, and the latest social and economic message of Shaanxi Province in 2015 to scientifically and systematically carry out the work of disaster risk assessment and prediction.We adopt the way of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to explore risks of flooding in fatalness, exposure, and vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.The four major factors to poor standardization of sub factors data processing, comprehensive weighting method is used to calculate the index coefficient, and combined with the Arc-spatial analysis function of GIS, flooding factors of districts in Shaanxi province.The results show that the frequent flood are mainly distributed in Shaanxi province Ankang municipality;Weinan, severe exposure in Xi'an, Xianyang;extreme vulnerability in Yulin and Xi'an;advanced ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in Xi'an;Comprehensive risk in Ankang municipality, Weinan, Xianyang.Flooding is closely related to the climate, topography and social economy.The results show that the divisions are identical to the flooding happened in recent decade's years, so has some reference value.