Based on passenger distribution characteristics analyzed in subway station platform, electric theory was introduced and intensity function of waiting site was set up. The passenger prediction model for waiting sites in subway stations was presented. To estimate the parameter, an objective function of minimum squared deviation between actual passenger distributions and the predicted in waiting areas was put forward. In order to estimate this problem, the advance and retreat method of fixed range was improved. Then, the relationship between this parameter and the passenger distribution was revealed. Finally, passenger distribution data of Haidianhuangzhuang Station was adopted to validate the model. Maximum error between the actual passenger distributions and the predicted was 6 passengers. Most of the errors were between 0 - 4 passengers, which could meet the actual requirements.%在分析站台乘客候车分布特性的基础上，构建候车位置场强度函数，建立了站台候车位置乘客人数预测模型．为求解模型参数，以实际乘客候车人数与预测相差平方和最小构造目标函数，改进了确定搜索区间的进退法．在此基础上，分析了模型参数与站台乘客候车分布之间的关系．以海淀黄庄站台乘客候车分布数据进行验证，结果表明，一般误差在0～4人，最大误差为6人，基本可以满足实际要求．
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