长江三角洲物流发展及与经济增长关系的实证研究

摘要

This paper first evaluates the regional logistics level of the Yangtze River Delta from 2002 to 201 1 with entropy method.The result shows that the overall logistics development level of the Yan-gtze River Delta has risen in recent 10 years although the development is unbalanced between different cities.The authors then use theil index to decompose the Yangtze River Delta regional logistics devel-opment differences,finding that the logistics theil index's fluctuation is not significant but generally rising in the last ten years.The research also shows that,first,regional differences and internal differences within the region become larger increasingly and steadily;second,the contribution rate of the three intra-regional differences is greater than that of inter-region differences;and third,the main reason for the logistics industry difference in the Yangtze River Delta is unbalanced urban develop-ment.Based on the calculation of the spatial autocorrelation,this paper finds that the spatial distribu-tion of the Yangtze River Delta regional logistics demonstrates a positive and significant spatial auto-correlation,but a significant downward trend in the degree of spatial concentration.Finally,by using the canonical correlation analysis,the authors analyze the relationship between logistics development and economic growth and find a significant positive correlation between logistics development and ur-ban economic growth.%运用熵值法，计算2002-2011年长三角城市群物流发展水平得分，发现，近10年长三角物流发展水平整体有所提高，但各市之间发展不平衡。利用锡尔系数对长三角区域物流发展差异进行空间分解，得出10年来物流锡尔系数幅度波动较小，总体趋于上升趋势。地区间总差异和地区内差异大致呈现稳定的上升趋势，地区内部的差异贡献率大于地区之间的差异贡献率。城市发展的非均衡性是长三角区域物流业产生差异的主要原因。利用空间自相关计算得出长三角区域物流空间分布呈现正向、显著的空间自相关现象，但空间集聚性呈现显著下降趋势。运用典型相关分析法对长三角物流发展和经济增长关系进行的分析表明：城市物流发展水平与经济增长存在高度相关性。