不同方法在湖南省早稻产量动态预报中的比较

摘要

The crop yield forecasting is one of the most important aspects of meteorological services for agricul-tural production.In order to improve the prediction accuracy,different forecasting methods are compared, and dynamic forecasting models of early rice yield are established based on climatic suitability,key meteor-ological factors and crop growth simulation model.Daily mean,maximum and minimum temperatures,pre-cipitation,sunshine duration,wind velocity and vapor pressure data of 15 representative meteorological stations are used,as well as the early rice growth and yield data of 12 representative agricultural meteoro-logical stations in Hunan Province from 1962 to 2002.Fitting test is performed by constraining the margin of error less than 5%.Extrapolation test is performed using data from 2003 to 2012,showing the accuracy of three methods are similar,all higher than 93.8%,and the dynamic forecasting models practically pass the test of 0.02 level,except for failing the test of 0.10 level on 30 April.Forecasting models from rife-ness tiller to elongating stage pass the test of 0.01 level,and forecasting models at reproductive stage pass the test of 0.001 level too.The method based on climatic suitability improves the accuracy by 4%-6%comparing to that based on key meteorological factors and is 8%-10% more accurate than that based on crop growth simulation model.In quantitative forecast,the method based on crop growth simulation model is optimum,leading to obviously more samples whose margin of error is less than 5%.According to the a-nalysis,the better method of early rice yield forecasting is screened out for Hunan Province.The method based on climatic suitability is chosen to carry out trend prediction of early rice yield,and the method based on crop growth simulation model is used to make quantitative forecast.It also provides reference for dy-namic forecasting method research of early rice yield in other areas of China.%为了提高产量趋势预报的准确性和定量预报的准确率，利用1962—2002年气象、早稻产量和田间观测资料，建立基于气候适宜度、关键气象因子、作物生长模型的湖南省早稻产量动态预报方法，进行回代检验；并利用2003—2012年资料进行预报检验。分析表明：3种方法的预报准确率比较接近，平均在93．8％以上；基于气候适宜度预报方法的趋势预报准确性最高，较基于关键气象因子的预报方法高4％～6％；基于作物生长模型预报方法的误差5％以内样本百分率最高，较基于气候适宜度的预报方法高2％～20％。研究结果为湖南省早稻产量动态预报筛选出了较优的方法，即产量趋势预报选用基于气候适宜度的方法，定量预报选用基于作物生长模型的方法，同时可供我国其他早稻区的产量动态预报方法研究借鉴。