首页> 中文期刊> 《安康学院学报》 >基于 EOP-MM 模型的陕西省经济适度人口规模研究

基于 EOP-MM 模型的陕西省经济适度人口规模研究

             

摘要

Population plays an important role in regional economic development;population growth must be adapted to a certain level of economic development. In recent years,the economy of Shaanxi province has developed rapidly,but due to the large population base, the population scale will give the pressure on the future economic activity. The moderate population size of Shaanxi province from 2002 to 2011 is calculated on the base period of 2002 with EOP - MM model,the result of the calculation shows that economic moderate popula-tion size of Shaanxi province is smaller than its actual size of population during 10 years,and there is a gap between them. The reason of the gap is analyzed from the level of industrial structure and labor structure,population size,population overall quality,an aging popu-lation and other aspects,and countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to narrow the gap and to increase the economic moderate population size.%人口在区域经济发展中起着重要的作用,人口的发展必须与一定的经济发展水平相适应。近年来,陕西经济快速增长,但由于人口基数大,人口规模对未来的经济活动形成了很大压力。运用 EOP-MM 模型,以2002年为基期,对陕西省2002-2011年的经济适度人口规模进行了测算。结果显示,10年间陕西省经济适度人口规模小于实际人口规模,与实际人口规模存在差距。从产业结构层次、劳动力结构转换、人口规模、人口总体素质、人口老龄化等方面分析了产生差距的原因,并提出了缩小差距、增加经济适度人口规模的对策建议。

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