基于标准化降水指数的鲁西地区旱涝时空特征分析

摘要

By using monthly precipitation data of 8 stations in Luxi area during 1962-2015, standard precipitation index (SPI) in each month was calculated.On the basis of this, SPI of whole year and each season was analyzed.The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought and flood were analyzed by using M-K mutation test, wavelet analysis, and ArcGIS spatial interpolation method.The results showed that: SPI in spring presented an increasing trend, and the rest of the season and the average annual showed a decreasing trend.In spatial distribution, drought times in eastern counties was higher than that of western counties, waterlogging presented south-north distribution, and the occurrence times in southern counties was higher than that in northern counties.As for seasonal drought and flood distribution, spring and summer drought occurred in eastern and southern counties, autumn and winter drought concentrated in northwestern counties;seasonal floods more frequently occurred in southern and eastern counties.%利用鲁西地区8个台站1962-2015年逐月降水资料,计算了鲁西地区各月的标准化降水指数(SPI),在此基础上分析了全年及各季节的标准化降水指数,应用M-K突变检验、小波分析和ArcGIS空间插值方法分析了旱涝的时空分布特征.结果表明,春季SPI呈现增加趋势,其余各季节及全年SPI均呈减少趋势.空间分布,年尺度干旱分布中东部县干旱次数高于西部县;雨涝呈现南北分布,南部县次数高于北部县.季节旱涝分布,春夏干旱多发生在东部及南部县,秋冬干旱集中在西北部县;季节雨涝次数较多发生在南部及东部县.