基于离散灰色模型的中国农机总动力预测

摘要

This paper employs Discrete Gray Model to forecast the trend of agricultural machinery total power of china . Firstly, we test the data about agricultural machinery total power of china during the period 2004-2011, which shows that the average relative error is 0 .307%, little error probability is 1 , correlation degree is 0 .9991 , and posterior vari-ance ratio is 0 .026 , and has a good fitness .Then , we predict the trend of agricultural machinery total power from 2012 to 2020 .The forecast result shows that agricultural machinery total power will climb to 1 ,247 ,952 ,000 kW in 2015 and to 1 ,684 ,204 ,000 kW in 2020 , and the growth rate per year is 6 .204%.%农机总动力预测对于国家制定相关农机发展政策具有重要意义。为此，运用离散灰色模型，对2004-2011年间的我国农机总动力的数据进行了分析建模、相关检验。其平均相对误差为0．307％，小误差概率为1，后验差比为0．026，关联度为0．9991，各指标都达到一级判别标准，表明该模型可以用于农机总动力的预测。在此基础上，对其2012-2020年间的发展趋势进行了预测，预测结果显示农机总动力呈逐年递增趋势，平均年增长率为6．204％，发展态势良好。