External Validity Test for Discrete Choice Transportation Forecasting Models211 Based on the Stated Choice Approach

摘要

A Constrained Conditional Logit Model based on the hypothesis that the existed211u001eresource constraints have significant effect on individual's mode switching is 211u001edeveloped. Theoretical and empirical studies reported here have supported the 211u001evalidity of this hypothesis. Data were collected on traveler demographics and 211u001ecommuter modal choice in response to parking charges at two major urban New 211u001eJersey corporate sites. Several developmental contributions and advancements are 211u001ereported, including: (1) The development of the Constrained Conditional Logit 211u001eModel (CCLM) which explicitly includes the resource constraint into the decision 211u001emaking process and then a switching probability function, therefore providing a 211u001etool for evaluating the effect of various constraints; (2) An advance on the 211u001emodel estimation, which not only improves the efficiency of the estimation but 211u001ealso provides a tool on the study of transferability of empirical models; and (3) 211u001eA cross-sectional design that makes an external validity test available in the 211u001esituation where researchers have no opportunity to manipulate both test and 211u001econtrol conditions in the actual experiment.