日本TBT对我国输日农产品的贸易效应分析

摘要

In recent years, TBT from Japan is more and more severe, which has caused serious impact on China' s agriculturalrntrade. The TBT's trade effects on China's agriculture were analyzed theoretically, and it was empirically analyzed based on onionrntrade of Sino-Japanese. The results showed that Japan' s TBT would prevented the agriculture export to Japan that led to the worse ofrnthe terms of trade in short-term, and caused damages to social welfare; it would made the competitiveness of agriculture export fromrnChina to Japan decrease in Mid-term, and would promoted the agriculture export to Japan, then created trade-promoting effects inrnlong-term.%近年来,日本技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)越来越苛刻,给我国农产品贸易造成了严重影响.对日本TBT给我国农产品出口产生的贸易效应进行了理论分析,并以中日大葱贸易为案例进行了实证分析.结果表明,日本TBT短期内会阻碍我国农产品对日出口,导致贸易条件恶化,社会福利受损;中期内会导致我国农产品对日出口竞争力下降;但长期来看,日本TBT会促进我国农产品对日出口,产生贸易促进效应.