基于贝叶斯估计的起重机械主梁的可靠性预测

摘要

针对起重机械主梁工作环境的复杂性和在相同工作环境下可靠性数据不足的问题,将贝叶斯估计方法和数据拟合相结合,以主梁的退化量作为性能参数,建立了起重机械主梁在工作环境下的可靠性预测模型；利用贝叶斯估计方法最大限度地将工作现场数据和历史试验数据相结合,及时更新主梁在工作环境下性能参数的分布函数,进而估计工作环境下不同时刻主梁的可靠度,最后采用最小二乘法估计主梁的可靠性函数.预测结果表明,起重机械主梁失效满足参数为(9.290,225.9)的2参数威布尔分布,得到为了满足主梁98％的可靠度要求,最小的维修间隔周期为149天.%Aiming at complexity of working environment for the girder of hoisting machinery and shortage of reliability data under the same working environment, in combination with Bayes estimation method and data fitting, the reliability prediction model for the girder of hoisting machinery under working environment is established with the girder degradation as the performance parameter. The Bayes estimation method is used to combine the field data and historical test data together to the maximum, in order to update the distribution functions of girder's performance parameters under working environment. The prediction result shows that the failure of the girder for hoisting machinery meets the two-parameter Weibull distribution with the parameters of (9. 290, 225. 9) , so that the minimum repair interval cycle of 149 days is determined in order for the girder to realize 98% reliability.