利用商丘市8个气象站点1960年10月-2010年9月降水量资料,应用线性回归、Mann-Kendall等方法,对冬小麦、夏玉米生长季的降水量进行趋势分析、突变检验.结果表明:①冬小麦、夏玉米生长季的降水量线性变化趋势均不显著,冬小麦生长季的降水量以-1.522 mm/10 a在减少,夏玉米生长季的降水量以16.60 mm/10 a在增加.②冬小麦、夏玉米生长季降水量气候倾向率空间分布均为东部减幅大,西部增幅大,降水量东西间的差异均呈减小趋势.③冬小麦生长季的降水量没有明显的突变点,夏玉米生长季降水量的突变时间在2000年前后.④冬小麦生长季降水量基本能够满足冬小麦生长发育的需求；夏玉米生长季降水资源丰富,降水量时间分配与夏玉米生理需求基本一致.%Based on the precipitation data from October 1960 to September 2010 of 8 weather stations in Shangqiu, the linear regression and Mann-Kendall were adopted to analyze the trend and mutation of precipitation. First of all, trends of wheat and corn's growing season are not significant, which reduced in 1.522 mm/10 a for the wheat.and increased in 16.60 mm/10 a for the corn; second, the spatial distribution of climate trend rate of precipitation is large reduction in the Eastern,and large increase in the Western,and the difference showed a decreasing trend;third,there was no obvious mutation of the precipitation in the wheat's growing season, while in the corn's growing season, the mutation appeared around 2000; last, the precipitation can basically meet the demands of winter wheat growth and development, while it's rich for the summer corn,and the time distribution of precipitation is consistent with the physiological needs of the summer maize.
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