基于 MaxEnt 生态学模型对普洱姜花潜在的园林引种区进行预测

摘要

The MaxEnt ecological model, which can be used to predicting species probable distribution range in target region according to the data for species of geographic distribution and environment factors is consistent with the need for introduction regionalization of wild plants cultivated in gardens. In this study, the potential introduction regionalization of Hedychium puerense was carried out in MaxEnt modeling framework taking temperature, rainfall and altitude as environmental factors. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the valid of the model,and the cultivated data was used to assist interpreting the regionalization map. ROC analysis indicated that the model constructed by MaxEnt has high reliability. By comparisons with the cultivated data, when the suitability degrees were divided into thirteen categories between 0-1, the species can be introduced successfully in the area where the degree exceeded 0.15, introduction experiments should be done in the area where the degree is 0.08-0.15, and the species should not be introduced in the area where the degree is below 0.08.%MaxEnt 生态学模型可根据物种的地理分布数据以及物种在分布区域和目标区域的环境因子数据，预测该物种在目标区域可能的分布范围，这一特点正符合野生植物园林栽培引种区预测的需要。本研究以温度、降雨和海拔为环境因子指标，采用 MaxEnt 模型软件对普洱姜花 Hedychium puerense Y. Y. Qian 的潜在引种区进行预测。模型的评价采用ROC 曲线进行，区划图的判读采用引种栽培数据进行辅助。ROC (Receiver operating characteristic)曲线检验显示，所建立的普洱姜花 MaxEnt 预测模型有效性高；经引种栽培数据与预测结果的比较分析，在适生性被划分为0-1的13级时，区划图中等级为0.15以上的区域可成功引种，在等级为0.08-0.15区域可以试种，在等级为0.08以下的区域不建议引种栽培。