安徽省地质灾害气象预报预警模型研究

摘要

通过对基于地质环境信息平台的地质灾害气象预报预警模型构建进行了探讨。拟在先期已具备的地质灾害预警分区、地质灾害易发分区基础上，以地质灾害“易发度”、预报降雨量、有效降雨量为因子，采用logistic回归模型确定各个评价单元的预警等级，经插值计算、图斑合并，实现地质灾害气象风险预警。%This paper discussed geological hazard weather forecast and warning modeling based on geological environment information platform, according to already established geological hazard warning zones and vulnerable zones, with geological hazard vulnerability, forecasted rainfall and effective rainfall as factors, determined warning grade of each assessed unit using logistic regression model, and materialized geological hazard weather risk warning by interpolation calculation and polygon merger.