Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression

摘要

Information model is adopted to integrate factors of various geosciences to estimate the susceptibility of geological hazards. Further combining the dynamic rainfall observations, Logistic regression is used for modeling the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences, upon which hierarchical warnings for rainfall-induced geological hazards are produced. The forecasting and warning model takes numerical precipitation forecasts on grid points as its dynamic input, forecasts the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences on the same grid, and translates the results into likelihoods in the form of a 5-level hierarchy. Validation of the model with observational data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geological hazards of the year have beenidentified as "likely enough to release warning messages". The model can satisfy the requirements of an operational warning system, thus is an effective way to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards.